“It’s about much more than the use of hard power”
NATO is facing many new and complex threats in the Arctic. UiT researcher Marc Lanteigne believes an important countermeasure is for NATO to clarify how they approach the civilian and military use of technology and research. Additionally, he advocates for NATO countries to engage in a professional dialogue with Russia on climate research.
Since 1949, NATO has largely been oriented towards the Arctic, as five of the 12 original member states have Arctic territories. With two new member states in the same category, which must contend with high levels of tension with a neighbour to the east, new issues are arising.
The new challenges this poses for the defence alliance were the focus of the panel debate "NATO and The Arctic," held during the Arctic Circle Assembly conference in Iceland.
Participating in the debate panel, alongside colleagues from the United States, Canada, the Netherlands, and Germany, was Marc Lanteigne, an Associate Professor of Political Science at UiT.
Multi-layered threats
Lanteigne points out that it is evident Russia and China have clearly diverged from NATO's interests in their Arctic policies. In this context, China has identified the polar regions as a "new strategic concern." This means that China is interested in influencing scientific and economic fields and aims to play a role in regional governance in the Arctic.
"It’s about much more than the use of hard power. NATO should define what they mean by security in the Arctic. There is concern within NATO about both Chinese-Russian military cooperation and grey-zone operations in the Nordic region by both powers," says Lanteigne.
Lanteigne emphasises that the threats NATO faces in the Arctic are multi-layered. Russia has initiated several operations that threaten both infrastructure and the civilian population in the Arctic. Examples include cutting cables in both Svalbard and Northern Norway, espionage, spreading disinformation, and conducting influence operations.
A somewhat less clear threat lies in the pressure NATO countries may face due to China's growing commercial and research presence in the region. In this context, Lanteigne has observed significant changes in China's policies over the past year.
"Beijing has made it clear that they intend to use the Arctic as a secondary shipping route in the coming years. There will be an increase in Chinese civilian shipping traffic in the region, and there is also potential for maritime and atmospheric research conducted by Chinese actors in the region to have military applications," he states.
A challenge to Norwegian sovereignty
One significant challenge to the NATO alliance, according to Lanteigne, is how the principle of dual use is perceived. Twenty years ago, member states were not as critical as they are now about whether technology, research, or private companies could be used for both civilian and military purposes, he argues.
To establish a stronger foothold in the Arctic, Lanteigne believes China has taken several initiatives in science diplomacy with smaller states in the region, particularly Iceland, Norway, and Finland.
"They are encouraged to collaborate more explicitly with China in areas such as climate research. However, concerns about dual use remain, given China's strategic interests in the far north," says Lanteigne.
Lanteigne notes that both Russia and China have been critical of what they perceive as Norwegian overreach, particularly regarding research regulations.
"Additionally, Russia has openly discussed the possibility of establishing an alternative research station in Pyramiden, which, if realised, could pose a direct challenge to Norway's sovereignty over Svalbard," he adds.
Climate dialogue with Russia Another challenge for NATO's Arctic policy, highlighted by Lanteigne, is how the alliance will respond to the threat of climate change. He believes this is an area that NATO is currently sidelining.
Russia, as a major Arctic power, cannot simply be excluded from regional climate dialogue. There is no easy solution to this.
Climate dialogue with Russia
Another challenge for NATO's Arctic policy, highlighted by Lanteigne, is how the alliance will respond to the threat of climate change. He believes this is an area that NATO is currently sidelining.
"That solves nothing. NATO needs to discuss climate change in the Arctic," states Lanteigne.
According to Lanteigne, an important step forward should be to include Russia in the dialogue on climate change, even though they are perceived as a security threat.
In his view, it is crucial to find a way to allow Russian participation in matters such as the sharing of climate data. At the same time, he emphasises the importance of ensuring that Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine is not normalised.
"Russia, as a major Arctic power, cannot simply be excluded from regional climate dialogue. There is no easy solution to this, and Russia should certainly not be given a free pass in the Arctic, given their ongoing hostility towards Europe," concludes Lanteigne.